Hu Runqing: The domestic photovoltaic market has high expectations
Time: 2013-9-22 11:34:48 Source: Component Trading Network Added by: admin
年9月17日在成都举行，新浪财经对本次论坛进行全程直播。 The Institute's Emerging Industries Department will be held in Chengdu on September 17 , 2013. Sina Finance will live broadcast the forum. According to Hu Runqing of the Energy Research Institute of the Development and Reform Commission, from the perspective of the development of the domestic market, although the entire industry and the government have high expectations for the rapid development of the photovoltaic market, at the same time we must also see that the rapid development of the domestic market also has constraints. .
The following is the speech record:
Hu Runqing: Good morning everyone! Today I mainly share with you the domestic photovoltaic policy and distributed photovoltaic opportunities. This is mainly the market target, as well as domestic policies, which will be briefly mentioned. Because I think from the policy perspective, there are many online discussions now, and I want to share with you the opportunities and challenges of distributed photovoltaics.
As everyone knows in the domestic photovoltaic market, in the past China's market was dominated by large-scale power stations. From the perspective of cumulative installed capacity, large-scale power stations accounted for more than half. However, judging from the new installed capacity last year, distributed has far surpassed large power stations and has become the mainstream of the market. Judging from the overall market situation, we feel that the domestic market has been in an explosive period in the past two years, and this situation will continue to be maintained. 十二五”的可再生能源发展目标里面提到是25个GW ，今年已经提到35个GW ， 2013年到2015年这三年期间，国内从政府引导的角度来说，希望每年能够新增10个GW.大型电站和分布式光伏应该基本上是处在对半的分布。 The National Development and Reform Commission just adjusted its planning and development goals early this year. Regarding the development goals of photovoltaics, the renewable energy development goals of the " Twelfth Five-Year Plan" mentioned last year mentioned 25 GW . This year, 35 GW have been mentioned. During these three years in 2015 , from the perspective of government guidance, China hopes to add 10 GW every year . Large-scale power stations and distributed photovoltaics should be basically distributed in half.
Judging from the trend of the domestic market, costs are now falling rapidly. Recently, in some parts of the southeast coast, the evaluation of battery distribution has been available. However, from the perspective of the development of the domestic market, although the entire industry and the government have high expectations for the rapid development of the photovoltaic market, at the same time we must also see that the rapid development of the domestic market also has constraints. I want to talk about the large-scale war first. We can easily compare it with wind power. I think everyone has seen wind power. Now there are a lot of problems with wind power. We must also consider it in the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power stations. We must also be careful in this regard. consider. It takes time to build the power grid, which is much longer than our photovoltaic power plant. Because the planning and construction of the power grid, even if it can be synchronized with the development of renewable energy stipulated by the state and implemented in accordance with the plan, we can see that the goals of photovoltaic and wind power have been greatly improved, so it is difficult for the construction of the power grid. Keep up with the rapid development of wind power and photovoltaics.
In addition, the problem of elimination is a relatively large problem. After the grid is connected, it is possible that your power is generated, but it cannot be sent out. That is to say, it is not only a problem of grid connection, but now the dissipation in the Three North Regions is a big problem. We supply wind power for heating in the north. The night of winter is a time period for the generation of wind power. However, due to the heating time, the generation stage must be ensured, which greatly inhibits wind power generation. So here, we use various ways to explore how to improve the capacity of wind power. For photovoltaics, this problem may be better, because photovoltaics generate electricity at peak times, during the day. But at the same time in the Northwest, when building a large-scale power station, I am afraid that this issue must also be carefully considered. The grid connection of some power stations has also been resolved, but there may be no problems at this stage, but if you look at the later stage, if there are many large-scale photovoltaic power plants around, similar problems with wind power may occur after three or five years. Therefore, when constructing a power station, I think this must be taken into consideration. This is also a relatively large restrictive factor that may exist in the rapid development of domestic large-scale photovoltaic power stations in the future.
For distributed, the on-grid electricity price is what everyone has been waiting for, and now it has been solved. For distributed, it is not only the settlement of on-grid electricity price, but also many other problems, which I will talk about in detail. Everyone's expectations are high, but the development of the market may have certain restrictions, and everyone needs to work together. There is also the issue of subsidy funds. We hope that the higher the subsidy funds, the better. As a country, there is a certain plate. Now the electricity price surcharge has increased significantly, but in general, the electricity price surcharge still has certain restrictions. From the perspective of development, the previous speaker also mentioned that there is a large market for the development of photovoltaic industry, which we very much agree with. In terms of development ideas, large-scale power stations and distributed development are both the goal of China's market development. Various departments now attach great importance to the development of the photovoltaic industry. The State Council, the Energy Bureau, the Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the State Grid Corporation of China and local governments are implementing a series of policies. Value. In addition, from the State Council's point of view, the document is very concerned about restraining the expansion of production capacity and promoting the merger and reorganization of enterprises. From the perspective of the power station, it is necessary to make a reasonable layout, supervise the nearest, digest locally, and advance in an orderly manner. 电源 建设等。 From the perspective of distribution, it should be said that the support is still very strong. It must be vigorously explored, and demonstration areas must be developed, and the construction of open distributed power should be encouraged . At the same time, a filing system was implemented to simplify decentralization from the management level and promote distributed development. 年，这是过去大家一直都在问的问题，现在也明确了。 In addition, the State Council's document also clearly states that the electricity price subsidy for 20 years is a question that everyone has been asking in the past, and it is now clear. At the same time, the collection standards were adjusted, and the fund for renewable energy development was enlarged on a large scale. Here, the State Council's document talks about a lot of content and has a good direction. In fact, the State Council's document, in fact, every sentence, such as the implementation of the filing system, requires the relevant departments to have a detailed implementation document to support it. In this regard, the documents from the State Council indicate the direction, but if the market is truly operable, more specific efforts must be made in all aspects. 角的补贴，对整个行业的发展具有非常大的促进作用。 Photovoltaic incentive policies have promoted investment subsidies and fixed electricity prices from the original policies. Currently, the industry is still relatively active in electricity price policies. Distributed is a subsidy of 4.2 cents, which has a great promotion effect on the development of the entire industry.
I want to talk about the potential of distributed. At present, the industry has done more in industrial and commercial buildings. This is the focus of development. In the current policy, because the user's electricity price is high, the economy is also better, and from a single project, the scale is relatively large and easy. Development. But there are also some problems in this, because in the past, there were more projects with more than megawatts in industrial and commercial buildings, and they will become smaller and smaller in the future. The harder it is to find. At the same time, because large-scale industrial and commercial buildings are generally involved in third-party development, the business model is still difficult.
Another market that is currently neglected in China is the household system, which is different from China, because foreign countries give very favorable on-grid electricity prices to small systems, and Germany has higher electricity prices than consumers. In our country, this market is only in its infancy. However, we can see that a few families have already begun implementation, one in Qingdao, one in Beijing, and one in Shanghai. But from our perspective, the potential of this market is still very large. If we say from the perspective of large project investment, that is to say we want to invest in a project, we need to make a loan from a bank, and invest in this project to calculate the profit rate of return. The current state policy is not applicable to the household system, because households The electricity price is too low. 千瓦的项目来测算，因为小型的屋顶上不可能建得特别大。 Small household systems, for example, are measured according to 5 kW projects, because small roofs cannot be built particularly large. 个千瓦的项目，如果按每个千瓦9000块钱来算的话，只需要4.5万的投资。 As a 5 kilowatt project, if it is calculated at 9,000 yuan per kilowatt, only 45,000 investment is required. As a family, you don't need to borrow money from the bank. 角来测算，一年收入能达到4500块钱左右。 In this way, according to the current policy and according to Beijing's 4.9 corner, the annual income can reach about 4,500 yuan. 块钱，相当于10%的收益，如果从家庭理财的角度来考虑的话，收益在10%左右。 One year's income can reach 4,500 yuan, which is equivalent to 10% of the income. If we consider it from the perspective of family financial management, the income is about 10% . For families, it should be said that this is better than the deposit bank, and financial management products are stable. If you change the perspective of this market, if you are a big investor, you may not be interested, but as a small and medium town or an independent user, this is actually a good financial management model. However, this project is relatively small. There is no big company involved. The family will do it by themselves. It is very important to support the service system.
The current management system is not applicable. The project application, filing system, and grid connection system must be greatly simplified to support the development of this market. We can also see that in fact, some companies have found such business opportunities, and some companies have started to provide some support services in this market. Including system integration, helping users to design and install, and finally connecting to the network to provide services for this set of procedures, which companies are doing, this is a relatively large market. But there are also some problems in it. I think the potential of this market is very large.
Judging from the current challenges faced by the photovoltaic market, it should be said that compared to large-scale power stations, including the market, the challenges will be more, because the entire system is a lot of links, involving many aspects, for a small investor He will face greater challenges, including grid connection, economic aspects, project approval, investment and financing, and capacity building. First, let's talk about grid connection. The grid connection has basically achieved a breakthrough. The national grid's simplified grid management procedure introduced by the State Grid has greatly promoted distributed projects. However, the area under the jurisdiction of the South Grid has not seen specific Whether the implementation of the document can be implemented nationwide is a question. Fund subsidy is a very big problem that plagues developers. The subsidy funds are seriously lagging behind, causing great difficulties for enterprises' cash flow. Now the state is committed to making some repairs in this area, and promulgating relevant management documents. The most important thing is the additional collection rate of electricity prices. The fund pool is full. For project subsidies, I expect that the subsidy funds should be released in a more timely manner. 月份开始推动这个工作，应该说今年9月份最终确定了18个示范区。 The Energy Bureau is promoting the construction of photovoltaic demonstration areas. It began to promote this work in September last year. It should be said that 18 demonstration areas were finally identified in September this year. 个示范区， 2013年的安装计划总的加在一起，满打满算也就80万千瓦。 We have also seen that according to the documents released by the Energy Bureau, the installation plans for the 18 demonstration areas in 2013 totaled up to 800,000 kilowatts. 万，如果分布式占50%的话，相当于需要500万，光靠这些示范区是远远不够的。 You see, the country's market target is 10 million a year. If distributed accounts for 50% , it is equivalent to 5 million. These demonstration areas alone are not enough. I think the most important thing for the country to promote the work of the demonstration area is to do some exploration in all aspects of the management model and the investment and financing platform construction, which can have greater benefits in promotion and application. The business model should be a very important part of distributed applications. In the past, it may have been done more by the energy contract management model. This actually puts the grid company aside, because the grid company is set aside, so the grid company ’s Attitude is not so cooperative. Is it possible to discuss a new model of tripartite cooperation, because now in the energy management contract, the developer is facing a big problem is the problem of charging electricity in the later period. If the electricity is leased to the roof, the electricity user I power it If you can't pay the electricity bills on schedule, in fact, the developers have no means or guarantee to guarantee the collection of electricity bills. Can these three parties work together? The collection of electricity charges is still collected by the grid company according to the usual mode of collection of electricity charges. The amount that should be obtained by the photovoltaic developer is transferred by the grid company. I think that the entire grid The charging mechanism will be more complete, and for developers, income will be more secure. There are some places in this model that we may have already tried, but the attitude of the power company is also the key content. From the State Grid in general, there is no clear expression of whether this model supports or opposes it. But from local companies, we can see that some progress has been made.
The issue of investment and financing is also a relatively large issue for distributed at present, because distributed projects have more investment as third parties, and the business model is unclear, which is a major problem that plagues everyone. Small scale, large companies are not interested, the new force is small and medium-sized companies, which is a good thing, but also an important content to support distributed applications abroad. It is difficult for large foreign companies to gain absolute control in this market. Perhaps more support is the development of local SMEs. There is also a problem here. The financing cost of SMEs is relatively high, and the financing difficulty is also relatively large. Now all parties are also exploring new financing models and financial service products, including micro-credit, including project equity investment, and project secured loans. These are all being explored now. From China Development Bank, they are now also trying to support the work of the demonstration park. They cooperate with local governments and demonstration parks to create a financing service platform and support the investment and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises through sub-loan.
年，谁能保证下面的电力用户、企业寿命能达到20年，谁能保证我的光伏电池产品和发电量能够达到20年。 Risk control is also a question that everyone often talks about. The distributed project has a life of 20 years. Who can guarantee the life of the following power users and enterprises can reach 20 years, and who can guarantee that my photovoltaic cell products and power generation can reach 20 years. So inside, now insurance (reassured insurance) products are also in the design process.
Technical issues, I would like to show you a few pictures, and you can also look at the technical issues facing them. 支架 、系统设计是跟建筑同步实施的。 This is a new building. Its support and system design are implemented in synchronization with the building. This is a roof-mounted photovoltaic system. We can see that these two systems are completely two concepts for the design of the bracket, one is very simple, the other is very strong or how. However, we can see that for the entire system design of photovoltaic systems, in fact, everyone does not have a standard. You may make the bracket very thick and very lightweight according to your own needs. One problem reflected in this is that everyone does not have a truly suitable standard to support everyone in doing this. Including other technical problems in the grid connection, etc., are the challenges faced by this distributed development. In addition, there are also management issues. How all parties form a joint force to implement policies has a great impact on distributed development influences. thank you all!